From the „I told you so” department

Irons/Bivens – May 1, 2008:

While it will be many months before an „official” recession is declared, evidence shows that the economic expansion that began in 2001 has almost surely ended.1 Furthermore, if these trends continue, the start of a new recession will likely be dated either at the end of the last quarter of 2007, or at some point during the first quarter of 2008.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research – December 1 2008

The Month of the Peak

The co

Irons/Bivens – May 1, 2008:

While it will be many months before an „official” recession is declared, evidence shows that the economic expansion that began in 2001 has almost surely ended.1 Furthermore, if these trends continue, the start of a new recession will likely be dated either at the end of the last quarter of 2007, or at some point during the first quarter of 2008.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research – December 1 2008

The Month of the Peak

The committee identified December 2007 as the peak month, after determining that the subsequent decline in economic activity was large enough to qualify as a recession.